Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

2025

• Beck, N., Dovern, J., & Vogl, S. (2025). Mind the Naive Forecast! A Rigorous Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Time Series with Low Predictability. Applied Intelligence, 55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-025-06268-w

2024

• Dovern, J. (2024). Eliciting Expectation Uncertainty from Private Households. International Journal of Forecasting, 40(1), 113-123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.01.002
• Dovern, J., Glas, A., & Kenny, G. (2024). Testing for Differences in Survey-Based Density Expectations: a Compositional Data Approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 39(6), 1104-1122. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3080

2023

• Born, B., Dovern, J., & Enders, Z. (2023). Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news. European Economic Review, 154, 104440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104440
• Dovern, J., Frank, J., Glas, A., Müller, L.S., & Perico Ortiz, H. (2023). Estimating pass-through rates for the 2022 tax reduction on fuel prices in Germany. Energy Economics, 126, 106948. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106948
• Dovern, J., Müller, L., & Wohlrabe, K. (2023). Local Information and Firm Expectations about Aggregates. Journal of Monetary Economics, 138, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.005

2022

• Buchheim, L., Dovern, J., Krolage, C., & Link, S. (2022). Sentiment and Firm Behavior During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 195, 186 - 198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2022.01.011

2020

• Dovern, J., & Kenny, G. (2020). Anchoring Inflation Expectations in Unconventional Times: Micro Evidence for the Euro Area. International Journal of Central Banking, 64, 309 - 347.
• Dovern, J., & Manner, H. (2020). Order-Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 440-456. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2755
• Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). How Economic Crises Damage Potential Output – Evidence from the Great Recession. Journal of Macroeconomics, 65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2020.103239
• Dovern, J., & Zuber, C. (2020). Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 122(4), 1431-1466. https://doi.org/10.1111/sjoe.12385

2017

• Dovern, J., & Hartmann, M. (2017). Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios. Empirical Economics, 53(1), 63-77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1137-x
• Dovern, J., & Jannsen, N. (2017). Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle. International Journal of Forecasting, 33(4), 760-769. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003

2016

• Dovern, J., Feldkircher, M., & Huber, F. (2016). Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, 70, 86-100. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2016.06.006
• Rickels, W., Dovern, J., Hoffmann, J., Quaas, M.F., Schmidt, J.O., & Visbeck, M. (2016). Indicators for monitoring sustainable development goals: An application to oceanic development in the European Union. Earth's Future, 4(5), 252-267. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000353
• Rickels, W., Dovern, J., & Quaas, M. (2016). Beyond fisheries: Common-pool resource problems in oceanic resources and services. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 40, 37-49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.013

2015

• Dovern, J. (2015). A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data. European Economic Review, 80, 16-35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.009
• Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., Loungani, P., & Tamirisa, N. (2015). Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel. International Journal of Forecasting, 31(1), 144-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.002
• Dovern, J., & Huber, F. (2015). Global prediction of recessions. Economics letters, 133, 81-84. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.05.022

2014

• Dovern, J., Quaas, M.F., & Rickels, W. (2014). A comprehensive wealth index for cities in Germany. Ecological Indicators, 41, 79-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.01.009
• Dovern, J., & Van Roye, B. (2014). International transmission and business-cycle effects of financial stress. Journal of Financial Stability, 13, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2014.02.006

2013

• Dovern, J. (2013). When are GDP forecasts updated? Evidence from a large international panel. Economics letters, 120 (3), 521-523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.06.007

2012

• Dovern, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2012). Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096.

2011

• Dovern, J., & Weisser, J. (2011). Accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of professional macroeconomic forecasts: An empirical comparison for the G7. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 452-465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.016

2010

• Dovern, J., & Blank, S. (2010). What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro‐macro model. Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2(2), 126-148.
• Dovern, J., Meier, C.-P., & Vilsmeier, J. (2010). How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(8), 1839-1848. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2009.12.001

2008

• Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations. The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 8(1). https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1540
• Dovern, J., Döpke, J., Fritsche, U., & Slacalek, J. (2008). The Sticky Information Phillips Curve. European Evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(7), 1513-1519.

2007

• Dovern, J., & Nunnenkamp, P. (2007). Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Effectiveness of Aid. Kyklos, 60(3), 359-383. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2007.00376.x